It’s been a tough ride for the diamonds sector since rough prices hit an all-time high in the first quarter of 2022. Last year rough prices fell 15-20% according to the Zimnisky Global Rough Diamond Price Index. Prices are now down about 25% from their early 2022 high.
So what happened to cause prices to tumble? The pandemic years brought generational volatility to diamond supply. In 2020, production dipped to the lowest levels since the 1990s. A recovery in 2021 through 2023 ensued. However, the new “normal” for output is still some 15-30 million carats below pre-2020 levels.
Global diamond production should hit 118 million carats this year, which compares to an estimated 110 million carats in 2020, but well short of the 136 million carats in 2019 and the 147 million carats in 2018. Demand for diamonds has been equally volatile over the last four years, impacting both rough and polished prices.
Last year, the industry experienced a “bullwhip effect” of sorts as producers and traders rushed to replenish depleted stock following furious demand in 2021 and early 2022. The flood of new goods resulted in the buyers of rough diamonds (the midstream comprised of rough buyers, polishers and jewelry manufacturers) stringently curtailing new purchases as 2023 wound down.
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